“1980s Lebanon on Steroids”
At least that is what Marc Lynch imagines Syria could become now that the Chinese and Russian UN vetoes have all but eliminated the peaceful transition option. While the resolution explicitly ruled out military intervention (due to fears of another Libya-esque regime change operation) the Russian and China vetoes, according to Lynch, are likely to … Read more
How the Fall of Assad Could Change Lebanon
Mustapha, over at Beirut Spring, posted some interesting thoughts on the effect the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad would have on Lebanon. He was spurred on by Hanin Ghaddar’s article at Now Lebanon in which she wrote: There will be no space for either March 8 or March 14 in the post-Assad era in Lebanon. They will be replaced by new, … Read more
Will Syrian Protests Turn Violent?
After six months of nonviolent protests have resulted in thousands of dead and injured civilians and have not produced any real reforms by the Syrian regime, some are calling for a move towards an armed uprising styled after the Libyan civil war. There are rumors of arms being smuggled into the country from neighboring Iraq … Read more
Is There a Link Between the 2003 Invasion of Iraq and the Arab Spring?
Abe Greenwald certainly thinks so. As Matt Duss points out, Greenwald’s piece in Commentary is just another effort to create a false conclusion about the war. From Greenwald: It was the Freedom Agenda of the George W. Bush administration—delineated and formulated as a conscious alternative to jihadism—that showed the way. Indeed, the costly American nation-building in … Read more
Turkey’s Syrian Waiting Game
In contrast to Iran and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has been far more patient in its policy towards Syria and the Syrian uprising. Meanwhile Iran has completely backed Assad and Saudi has thrown its lot in with the protesters. Each decision has clear regional implications (as I recently discussed) based on national interests, but it seems … Read more
The Iranian-Saudi Testing Ground (aka Syria)
Joseph Bahout has an interview in Le Journal de dimanche in which he expands on the competing interests of Iran and Saudi Arabia (and Turkey as well,) noting that the recent isolation of Syria has left Assad with only Iranian support. Bahout calls the fall of the Assad regime a ‘red line’ and says … Read more
Syrian Bloodshed Could Start Regional War, Part II
Haaretz recently offered some empty speculation concerning the rumors of a Turkish intervention in Syria should Assad not end the violence against the Syrian people: Turkey sends troops to Syria, and Iran retaliates by sending troops to Bahrain. It seems unlikely that Turkey would send its military into Syria and there is nothing to … Read more
Can Syria Get Anymore Confusing?
The protest movement in Syria has, to say the least, a whole lot of twists and turns. Domestically, we’ve talked about the photo-shopping skills of the regime, the potentially ruinous state of the economy, the ebb and flow of momentum, the use of propaganda by both sides and the possible sectarian strife and civil war that … Read more
The Arab Spring and the Fall of Hezbollah, Con’t
Yesterday I argued, in response to Nicholas Noe and Thanassis Cambanis’ respective eulogies of Hezbollah, that the group’s (perhaps) unwise support of the Assad regime in the face of popular protests would not bring about the group’s destruction. The sectarian divisions in Lebanon (and the weaker, secular Shi’ite party Amal) means that Hezbollah will be able … Read more
The Arab Spring and the Fall of Hezbollah
The links between Hezbollah and the Bashar al-Assad regime are tight and very well known. Consequently, Hezbollah members are watching the situation in Syria very closely, as the fall of Assad would deprive the group of one of its most important backers (Iran being the other). Thanassis Cambanis and Nicholas Noe wrote two pieces in … Read more
Chris Keeler
Chris Whitman
