How the Fall of Assad Could Change Lebanon
Mustapha, over at Beirut Spring, posted some interesting thoughts on the effect the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad would have on Lebanon. He was spurred on by Hanin Ghaddar’s article at Now Lebanon in which she wrote: There will be no space for either March 8 or March 14 in the post-Assad era in Lebanon. They will be replaced by new, … Read more
Quote of the Day: Unbiased Analysis
“The Khomeinist leadership is in a state of panic,” crowed Amir Taheri, a long-time critic of the Islamic Republic, in the Saudi-owned, London-based Asharq al-Awsat. Eight months after the start of the Arab Spring, he added, “the ruling mullahs” fear that they, too, “may be on the path of the tsunami of change.” Taheri, of course, … Read more
Will Syrian Protests Turn Violent?
After six months of nonviolent protests have resulted in thousands of dead and injured civilians and have not produced any real reforms by the Syrian regime, some are calling for a move towards an armed uprising styled after the Libyan civil war. There are rumors of arms being smuggled into the country from neighboring Iraq … Read more
Can Sanctions Bring Down Assad? Part II
An article in the Globe and Mail details how easily Syria will be able to find new buyers to replace the EU in november when the new EU sanctions prohibiting oil and gas transactions with Syria come into effect. China and India will likely be able to absorb the roughly 150,000 barrels of oil a day … Read more
Can Sanctions Bring Down Assad?
It seems as though there is a new article everyday about how Assad is doomed in Syria with many claiming that sanctions alone will be able to bring down the Assad regime. In addition to some serious sanctions by the US the European Union recently announced a ban on oil imports/exports (though the ban will … Read more
Walt:The US Will Lose in Iraq
Piggy-Backing on my last post about the American decision to invade Iraq and the long-term consequences of doing so, I present Stephen Walt: Specifically: invading Iraq was never necessary, because Saddam Hussein had no genuine links to al Qaeda and no WMD, and because he could not have used any WMD that he might one … Read more
Is There a Link Between the 2003 Invasion of Iraq and the Arab Spring?
Abe Greenwald certainly thinks so. As Matt Duss points out, Greenwald’s piece in Commentary is just another effort to create a false conclusion about the war. From Greenwald: It was the Freedom Agenda of the George W. Bush administration—delineated and formulated as a conscious alternative to jihadism—that showed the way. Indeed, the costly American nation-building in … Read more
Turkey’s Syrian Waiting Game
In contrast to Iran and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has been far more patient in its policy towards Syria and the Syrian uprising. Meanwhile Iran has completely backed Assad and Saudi has thrown its lot in with the protesters. Each decision has clear regional implications (as I recently discussed) based on national interests, but it seems … Read more
The Iranian-Saudi Testing Ground (aka Syria)
Joseph Bahout has an interview in Le Journal de dimanche in which he expands on the competing interests of Iran and Saudi Arabia (and Turkey as well,) noting that the recent isolation of Syria has left Assad with only Iranian support. Bahout calls the fall of the Assad regime a ‘red line’ and says … Read more
Syrian Bloodshed Could Start Regional War, Part II
Haaretz recently offered some empty speculation concerning the rumors of a Turkish intervention in Syria should Assad not end the violence against the Syrian people: Turkey sends troops to Syria, and Iran retaliates by sending troops to Bahrain. It seems unlikely that Turkey would send its military into Syria and there is nothing to … Read more
